Chaos at 1500 for Dundracon?

As the last post mentioned I'm also looking at Chaos for Dundracon.   There are several reasons they are a bit of a 'plan B' at this point.

1.  I feel like the no fortification rule of Dundracon hurts my chaos list a lot.  Cultists no longer get a nice place to hid and go to ground, and that was pretty much my only anti air shooting with the quad gun.

2.  I have not spent much time painting Chaos for 6th edition or the new dex.  This means I've got more work to do here than the marine bikes.

3.  I have yet to really feel like I've figured out a good Thousand Sons list anyway.

So where does that leave me?  Well let's take a look at what I last tried with the 1ksons, again a 1750 list.

Sorcerer MoT
Termie Lord, MoT, PF
3 Termies, 3x CombitMelta, PF
5 1ksons, Rhino, Havoc Launcher
5 1ksons, Rhino, Havoc Launcher
5 1ksons, Rhino, Havoc Launcher
10 Cultists, Autoguns
10 Cultists, Autoguns
Helldrake
3x Obliterators
Auto/Las Pred
Auto/Las Pred
Aegis w/ Quad Gun

More than that list.  Surely there are some options here, right?

This list was pretty meh.  The Sorcerer is near useless, he basically sat with one cultist squad to man the gun.   The wall really helps the cultists and the Predators.  The Predators are great for taking out light tanks but I've been seeing less and less of those.  I'm almost tempted to swap those for dakka preds but... it always comes back to are obliterators more flexible? Yes, yes they are.

So we've got to toss the wall.  Let's toss the predators and the cultists too since I think they both lose a lot without the wall.

Plus we know we definately want to add the second flier.

Sorcerer MoT
Termie Lord, MoT, PF
3 Termies, 3x CombitMelta, PF
5 1ksons, Rhino, Havoc Launcher
5 1ksons, Rhino, Havoc Launcher
5 1ksons, Rhino, Havoc Launcher
Helldrake
Helldrake
3x Obliterators
1468

So two HQs at 1500 I'm not so hot about really.  I need the sorcerer.  The termie lord would be nice to make the oblits fearless or to go with the termies.  On the other hand cutting the lord for another squad of termicide might be good.  Of course what would probably be best is to cut them both for oblits.  In the long run this is probably what I need to do and convert those termies to oblits.

The other problem is, as always, time.  I am going to have to paint two helldrakes.  That is easily going to take two weeks.  The only HQ I have painted is a Daemon Prince who is neither going to fit into this list, plus I have to paint the sorcerer.  So converting and painting more oblits is probably not going to happen in time.

Termie, Sorcerer, MoT, 2nd Mastery Levels
5 Termies, 5x CombitMelta, PF
5 1ksons, Rhino, Havoc Launcher
5 1ksons, Rhino, Havoc Launcher
5 1ksons, Rhino
Helldrake
Helldrake
3x Obliterators, MoN, VotLW
1500

So the Termie sorc is not useless.  He has to go with the termies but has the option to deepstrike or  start on the table.  If I'm playing a static shooty list I might go for the deepstrike and risk it if I think I can hid my rhinos a bit early in the game.

I've gone Nurgle on the oblits, it is just too good not to take it (fluff be damned).  The Vets upgrade because I had 9 points left.

I cut one havoc launcher for points.  I might put one in reserves and start the oblits on the table, that would be 2 units that had to be in reserves (helldrakes), 3 on the table, and 3 in reserve.

It is just so... tiny...

The fear is that is not a lot on the table.  Even starting all three rhinos and the oblits on the table could be shot off with a bad matchup and bad dice.

Plus I still need to paint the Sorcerer, the two Helldrakes (which are at least airbrushed blue), and the two havoc launchers.

I really want to try the two helldrakes but this feels light on troops and light on units.  Granted the 1ksons aren't going to run away from taking a few loses, and the oblits are pretty tough to get through quickly also.

I look at my bike list and I think in a few turns it could wipe the troops, then it just needs to stay alive (ie kill the helldrakes).  If Chaos got first tun they could try to minimize how much fire it would get turn one, then hope to inflict as much pain with good reserve rolls as soon as possible.

It just all feels far more risky than the bike list, no?